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Could the "me" in Methuselah be yours truly? Could I live 900 years? Fat chance. But could my grandchildren? Phat chance--at least according to Ray Kurzweil, inventor and futurist, in The Singularity Is Near, published in 2005. Kurzweil claims that, because of the exponential rate of growth of human knowledge and technological capabilities, we are moving rapidly toward a Singularity, a unique event capable of rupturing the fabric of human history.
Throughout history, humans have sought to transcend their lack of knowledge, their frailties, and their mortality with religion. Hindus achieve Nirvana by uniting their individual soul, Atman, with the universal soul, Brahmin. Buddhists acknowledge that existence is suffering, which is caused by clinging, and that following the Eight-Fold Path will bring an end to suffering and lead to Nirvana. Taoists achieve peace by living in harmony with the natural course of things, the Tao. Shintoists, too, find happiness in living a simple and harmonious life. Jews believe that the solution is to recognize that God is One and to behave righteously. Christians obtain salvation and reach heaven by accepting that Jesus Christ is the Son of God who died to redeem their sins. Muslims achieve perfect peace by submitting to the will of Allah and following the Five Pillars. Although theologies differ from culture to culture, it seems to be human nature to be religious.
But now comes a futurist like Kurzweil to argue that many of our assumptions about human nature and the machines that humans create will be called into question in the next few decades. "The essence of being human," he says, "is not our limitations...it's our ability to reach beyond our limitations."
Here, in brief, is his account of the evolution of the universe:
Epoch 1--Physics and chemistry. A few million years after the Big Bang, as cooling occurred, atoms and then molecules began to form, leading to information in atomic structures.
Epoch 2--Biology and DNA. Several billion years ago, structures became more and more intricate until complex aggregations of molecules formed self-replicating mechanisms and life originated, followed by a digital mechanism (DNA) to store information.
Epoch 3--Brains. DNA-guided evolution produced organisms that could detect and store information.
Epoch 4--Technology. Using brains and an opposable thumb, humans created technology, the development of which is now accelerating exponentially (consider: two billion years from the origin of life to cells; a mere 14 years from the PC to the World Wide Web).
Epoch 5--The merger of human technology with human intelligence. Within a few decades, human brains will merge with machine brains (which have vastly greater capacity, speed, and knowledge-sharing ability) to create a human-machine civilization, the Singularity, which will allow us to overcome age-old (and old-age!) human problems and vastly amplify human creativity. We will transcend the profound limitations of biological evolution.
Epoch 6--The universe wakes up. Intelligence will begin to saturate the matter and energy in its midst. The "dumb" matter and mechanisms of the universe will be transformed into sublime forms of intelligence.
As Kurzweil visualizes it, we will be able to re-engineer all of the systems and organs in our biological bodies and brains. Nanotechnology will make possible the manipulation of physical reality at the molecular level. This will bring about the creation of nanorobots, which will play a myriad of roles within the bloodstream. We will be able to slow, halt, then eventually actually reverse the aging process. Nanobots will also enable us to create virtual realities within the nervous system. They will manipulate image and sound waves and bring the morphing qualities of virtual reality to the real world. (For an indication of how this mysterious process might work, see Rainbow's End, a novel by Vernor Vinge, also a futurist.) With cybernetic implants, humans and machines will merge.
(Interestingly, three news items within the last week support the idea that we are moving very fast technologically. (1) The Air Force is developing flying robots that are disguised as birds to conduct espionage and possibly even fire weapons. By 2030 they hope to create robots the size of insects. (2) Scientists have retrieved DNA from the extinct wooly mammoth and could possibly bring it back to life by inserting that DNA into the genome of the modern-day elephant. (3) In Spain, doctors successfully transplanted into a woman a new trachea grown from her own stem cells.)
"Ultimately," says Kurzweil, "the entire universe will become saturated with our intelligence. This is the destiny of the universe. We will determine our own fate rather than have it determined by the 'dumb,' simple, machinelike forces that rule celestial mechanics."
So what's to stop this process from happening? An earth-destroying collision with an asteroid? Out-of-control global warming that leads to the extinction of the human race? A sudden reversion to an ice age that has the same result? A health care system that limits the re-engineering option to the wealthy? We kill ourselves off with nuclear weapons? We stage a Luddite rebellion, destroy our technology, and live like the Amish? God becomes enraged at human arrogance and brings on a cataclysm? All possible, I suppose, but none very likely, in my opinion.
Now maybe, after all, we're just not that smart and never will be. But I believe with Kurzweil that if we become human-machines, we will become more, not less, human, because we will be endeavoring to maximize our natural potential. Do I want to live virtually 900 years? If in good health with enhanced intellectual and physical powers, why not? Will it happen for me, the old guy who forgets why he left the living room to go into the kitchen, the guy who's losing more than a step a year on the softball field? Only in my dreams. But two generations down the old technological assembly line, it looks promising. May the right kind of bots be with you, my potentially nonacentenarian grandchildren!
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